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El Niño, a complex climate pattern with global implications, has been officially declared by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa). This phenomenon, characterized by unusual warming of sea surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific, is expected to have significant effects on weather patterns and rainfall distribution. In this comprehensive guide, we will explore the impacts of El Niño, the forecasted scenarios, and the measures being taken to mitigate its adverse effects.
Understanding El Niño
El Niño refers to the abnormal warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, leading to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. It occurs irregularly every 2-7 years and can last for several months to a few years. El Niño has far-reaching consequences, affecting weather patterns, agriculture, ecosystems, and economies worldwide.
El Niño Advisory by Pagasa
Pagasa has declared the onset of El Niño based on reports indicating its presence in the tropical Pacific. The agency issued El Niño Advisory 1, urging government agencies to take appropriate action. While El Niño is anticipated to strengthen in the coming months, its impact on the Philippines is yet to be fully realized.
Impacts of El Niño in the Philippines
Rainfall Scenarios and Drought Conditions
During El Niño, the Philippines experiences below-normal rainfall conditions, resulting in drought and dry spells in many areas. Pagasa predicts 10 to 14 storms between July and November, with rainfall expected mainly from July to September. The effects of El Niño are likely to be felt from the last months of the year through the first quarter of 2024. It is important to note that while overall rainfall may be reduced, the enhanced southwest monsoon can still bring above-normal rainfall to the western parts of the country.
Preparedness and Assistance Measures
The Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) is prepared to assist local government units (LGUs) in dealing with the potential impacts of El Niño. As per the Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010, LGUs are the first responders in disasters and calamities. The DSWD has stocked up on food and non-food items to provide relief to affected families and communities. Cash assistance and cash-for-work programs are also available to help individuals meet their basic needs.
Water Shortage Concerns
The Manila Waterworks and Sewerage System (MWSS) is closely monitoring the water level at the Angat Dam, which supplies more than 90 percent of Metro Manila's potable water needs. In preparation for possible water shortage caused by drought during El Niño, the MWSS is considering a "worst-case scenario" of 6 to 10 hours of water interruption if the water level falls below the critical level. Contingency plans are in place to minimize the impact on households and ensure the availability of water resources.
El Niño's Global Impact
United Nations and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Statements
The United Nations and the WMO have also acknowledged the presence of El Niño and its potential impact on global temperatures. According to the WMO, El Niño is expected to continue throughout 2023 and be of at least moderate strength. The phenomenon can lead to the breaking of temperature records and trigger more extreme heat in various parts of the world. Early warnings and preparedness are crucial to minimize the impacts on health, ecosystems, and economies.
Climate Patterns and La Niña
El Niño is the opposite phase of La Niña, a climate pattern characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures. The world experienced an exceptionally long La Niña period from 2020 to early 2023. Despite the cooling effect of La Niña, the past eight years have been the warmest ever recorded. The absence of La Niña during this period could have exacerbated the warming trend.
Conclusion
El Niño is a powerful climate phenomenon that demands careful monitoring and preparedness. Its impacts on rainfall patterns, drought conditions, and temperature extremes can have significant consequences for agriculture, ecosystems, and communities. By understanding the nature of El Niño and implementing appropriate measures, we can mitigate its adverse effects and build resilience in the face of changing climate patterns.
